I will be taking part in this panel on the Iranian elections (via SKYPE from Israel) at 12:30 EST today (7:30 pm Israel time, 5:30 London time).
You can watch the event live below. Please feel free to join me.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/iran-the-battle-for-the-presidency
Its official: Rafsanjani and Meshai are disqualified as candidates for the upcoming Iranian elections.
From now until election day, the supreme leader could best be described as the head of a panel of the talent show.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/iran-elections-meshai-rafsanjani-disqualified.html
Ahmadinejad has just cancelled his third trip in a week (2 domestic and 1 foreign). Something must be going on. 
In my opinion the most probable cause is lobbying.
Its quite possible that he has realized that his colleague Meshai may not be approved by the Guardian Council to run for the upcoming elections. Ahmadinejad could be staying back to help him by lobbying the Office of the Supreme Leader.
To be honest I can’t think of another reason why he would cancel 3 trips in a week. Its very unlike him.
He will have to be careful though. Ahmadinejad can’t push people around like the old days. And he can’t threaten people by saying that he will reveal secrets about them. Well thats not exactly correct. He could, but he risks house arrest.
Rafsanjani will also have to be careful.
He also risks house arrest if he is suspected of fermenting unrest.
There are already numerous people within the regime who accuse Rafsanjani of fermenting the 2009 demonstrations. One reason is a statement made by his wife in 2009. After casting her vote in the 2009 elections, Efat Marashi (aka Mrs Rafsanjani) stated (on camera) that “the youth should pour on to the streets if there are cheating in the elections”.
There are many who are just waiting to settles scores with Rafsanjani. Ayatollah Khamenei just has to give them the word. If there are disturbances in Iran again and Rafsanjani is accused of being behind them, this time I believe that he might just do that.
If you are a betting person, do not bet on a Rafsanjani victory. My article explains why
In my opinion, the real reason why the Iranian regime decided to cut short the visits by Iran’s wrestling team to the US was because the initial leg of the visit in New York went so well. 
“It was great,” U.S. Coach Zeke Jones said. “The competition was good and people were rocking and rolling in the arena, including the Iranians — they were going crazy.”
Now that was in NYC which has less Iranians than LA where the wrestlers were supposed to go next, but the regime decided to disallow them by abruptly ending their tour.
The last thing the regime wants is for its wrestlers to go back home and to talk about what amazing reception they also received in LA, from the authorities and from the Iranians who live there.
And has the regime tried to downplay Iranians success in the US before because of concerns that it could delegitimize its efforts to demonize the United States?
Absolutely.
The regime only gave a lukewarm response to the Oscar victory by the Iranian actors and directors of the Movie “A Separation“ in February 2012. Now you would have thought that a victory on US soil in the Oscars by Iranians would have been a cause for a massive celebration in Iran with the government lavishly praising the artists publicly. However this did not happen. Apart from verbally celebrating the fact that “A Separation” beat an Israeli competitor (among others), the regime did little else to emphasize this victory.
It has bigger concerns. For years it has tried to say that the American government is racist against Iranians and that Hollywood is run by “Zionists”. The last thing it would want is to delegitimize its own propaganda by celebrating an Oscar given by Hollywood on US soil to Iranians. This would be detrimental to its disinformation campaign.
I do not believe regime claims that the real reason for the withdrawal was because ”The US government would not accept responsibility for the Iranian team”.
Nor do I agree with those who want to blame Iranian – Americans individuals who are accused of wanting to “hijack” the event by thinking of waving non Iranian regime flags.
America is a democracy. Non racist flags can not be banned. Nor are they a genuine reason for regime to cancel the event, as years of censorship have taught its TV people to censor “unwanted” flags and messages in the crowds, by introducing a delay in the live transmission of the games.
It has always been my belief that when it comes to the US, the current regime in Iran is more scared of peace than war. This recent event has reinforced this belief.
A fascinating discussion about Iran’s upcoming presidential elections, hosted by London’s Front line club. 
The panel:
Mehri Honarbin-Holliday is senior research fellow at Canterbury Christ Church University and fellow at the Centre for Gender Studies at SOAS. She is the author of Becoming Visible in Iran: Women in Contemporary Iranian Society and Masculinities in Urban Iran.
Kelly Golnoush Niknejad is founder and editor-in-chief of the award-winning Tehran Bureau, which is hosted by the Guardian. She is also the inaugural recipient of the Innovator Award from Columbia Journalism School for “inspiring, creating, developing, or implementing new ideas that further the cause of journalism”.
Kasra Naji, special correspondent for BBC Persian TV and author of Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader.
Chaired by:
Azadeh Moaveni, a former Middle East correspondent for Time magazine who has reported on Iran since 1999. She is the author of Lipstick Jihad, Honeymoon in Tehran, and co-author, with Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi, of Iran Awakening.
Meir Javedanfar sat down with Reza Akhlaghi of Foreign Policy Association to discuss Israel’s views on Iran and the country’s upcoming presidential elections:
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2013/05/14/a-candid-discussion-with-meir-javedanfar/
