Taliban takeover is likely to lead to a wave of Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran.
Turkey is placing a security barrier on its border with Iran. So it’ll be difficult for the Afghan refugees in Iran to get to the EU. They will have to stay in Iran.
Iran’s economy is in doldrums. Therefore, it will be difficult for the Afghan refugees in Iran to find jobs.
This is especially true as Iran intends to confine new Afghan refugees to provinces on the Iran–Afghan border, where unemployment is high.
With many unemployed Afghan refugees, the IRGC could now find a bigger pool of recruits for its Afghan brigades in Syria. This will be good news for the Assad regime and the Iranian regime and bad news for Israel.
Prior to the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan, especially the city of Herat, was an important source of US dollars for Iran’s economy.
According to the Tehran based news site Moniban news, Iranian traders used to take Iranian made goods to Herat for sale; payments by Afghans were usually in cash. The rate of USD in Herat, which is only 2 hours away from Iran’s border, was lower than in Iran. So while in Herat, the traders purchased USD and brought them to Iran for sale.
Annually, the export of Iranian goods to Afghanistan was worth between $7 billion – $9 billion. With international sanctions on the way against the Taliban regime, Iran–Afghanistan trade could fall significantly. It could also reduce the supply of USD in Iran’s currency market, thus pushing up the rate of USD/Toman. This will then push up the cost of imports for Iran and its rate of inflation.
The departure of the US from Afghanistan is good for Iran’s anti-US rhetoric, but likely to be bad news for Iran’s economy.