According to an article published today in the Tehran based Javan on line, Iran’s population will drop from its current 73 million to 31 million by the beginning of the 22nd century (approximately 90 years from now).
The figures presented by Javan are based on the United Nation’s 2010 population forecast.
The study forecasts Iran’s population to be the following at these specific timelines:
Year – population (approximate numbers)
2026 – 79 million (this is where it peaks)
2056 – 69 million (the same as Iran’s population in 2006)
2071 – 56 million
2081 – 46 million
2091 – 37 million
2101 – 31 million
This is a clear sign that Iran’s population is ageing fast and that the government’s family planning programs have been working.
The Iranian government may be Islamic in name, but in reality when it comes to serving its own interests, it has no qualms about throwing its Islamic beliefs out of the window. They almost always lose to regime interests.
This was seen at the beginning of the revolution where Iranians were advised to have as many children as possible so that the regime has more “soldiers of Islam”.
In fact one of the 1st things my mother was told by her nurse after waking up from the unconsciousness induced for my brother’s birth in 1982 was “Congratulations Mrs Javedanfar. You have given birth to a son, a new soldier for the war between Hagh (righteousness) against Batel (devoid of reason ie. evil). This was the description the regime used to describe Iran’s fight against Saddam and the righteousness of the battle which Iran’s soldiers were fighting. (By the way, the nurse was half right in her prediction. My brother did become a soldier, but in the Israeli army).
By the end of the eight year war against Iraq the regime realized that a rising young population with no jobs could pose a threat to its survival. As a result, despite the fact that it’s against Islamic teachings, a very sophisticated and successful government sponsored family planning system was introduced.
Now it seems the plan has been too successful.
Another likely factor which has most probably had a great impact on dissuading Iranian families from have more children is the country’s deteriorating economic situation.
One of the politicians who has been advocating Iranian families to have more children since at least two years ago is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Khamenei has now joined him by declaring “as Imam Khomeini said, Iran’s population should reach 150 – 200 million”.
The key question is: with what resources?