Forget Rafsanjani, forget Meshai. There is very little chance that either would be picked for the post of presidency.
At best they’ll be qualified to run for the elections by the Guardian Council. But beyond that, they don’t stand much of a chance. Both men have made far too many enemies with far too many powerful people such as Ayatollah Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards.
If you are a betting person, for now, I’d say here are the odds for the likeliest candidate to be selected for the post of president in Iran.
The results below are based on the criteria which I believe the supreme leader is most likely to use to pick the next president (in consultation with other bodies inside the regime. However Khamenei will have the last word)
Most likely – current chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili
Second most likely – former parliament speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel
Third most likely – former foreign minister Velayati
Fourth most likely – current mayor of Tehran Qalibaf
Iranian politics is very convoluted and fluid. Things change easily and quickly. So lets revise this list in a week and see what has changed.
Whats interesting is that hardly anyone noticed that the speaker of the Majles Ali Larijani decided not to run for elections – again.
I think Jalili is Khamenei’s candidate and he will do anything to put him in power as a new president, and I think it is much easier for him because if he cheats again same as he cheated in 2008 election neither Rafsanjani have the will to confront Khamenei nor Mashaie have the power (even if they let Mashaie to participate) so far we have to consider him as a new president and he will be even worst than Ahmadinejad.
U are wrong.
I agree that if Rafsanjani and Mashai pass the Guardian Council muster, they will not be picked to be the president. As 2009 showed, it is not who gets the most vote, but I think they would have a lot of difficulty justifying anyone from the four candidates that you suggest would have the Supreme Leader’s backing other than Qalibaf who as the mayor of Tehran has some popularity also. Velayati, Jalili, and Haddad Adel just don’t have the popularity, and although Qalibaf is not the top pick for SL, he is popular enough to be picked.
The puppet master is calling all his guys to entertain iranianin public to counter “No vote, No show” strategy. Rafsanjani has a great chance to get re-elected but he will get sick right before election. Agha does not trust any named mentioned above except Hadad (his family) but he will not make that push. Wait for a surprise candidate like Ali Najafi or I will put my all bet on Velayati & his son Meysam who has control of all billboards in Iran.
May god bring peace for Iran & Isreal 🙂 & stop defense/warfare dealer from spreading hate