Iran nuclear deal: a train wreck?

23 Jan

An appropriate way to describe the nuclear agreement with Iran?

After his recent interview with Iran president Rouhani, Fareed Zakaria described the nuclear deal with Iran as a “train wreck”.

Why? Because Rouhani told Zakaria that Iran would not destroy any of its centrifuges. “Not under any circumstances”, stated Rouhani.

Fareed’s concern is that the view in the West is completely different. In Western capitals as part of a final deal with Iran, at minimum Iran’s enrichment capability should be reduced significantly. Or in simpler terms, Iran will have to destroy a substantial part of its current number of centrifuges. This vast gap in the understanding between the two sides is what seems to have caused Fareed Zakaria to call the latest deal with Iran a “train wreck”.

My thoughts:

I think Fareed is jumping the gun here. What the Iranian government, elected by people in limited regime monitored elections and what the un-elected regime headed by the supreme leader say is not always what they will always do.

This is why Iran should be judged by its actions and not its words.

Why am I saying this?

Because I have lost count of the number of times that Iranian regime and Iranian government officials have stated in the past that Iran would never cease enrichment at any level, be it temporary or permanent.

Here is one example. Here is another. And another. And another. I could go on.

These were all said prior to the 24th of November 2013 Geneva deal.

Yet we saw that as part of that deal, Iran did agree to halt enrichment at 20%. Why? because of the pressure of sanctions (mainly) and also because of Ahmadinejad-enomics which had ruined Iran’s economy for eight years.

So just because Rouhani says that Iran would never destroy its centrifuges in an interview, it does not mean that this is set in stone. We have heard these claims before, and also seen how the Iranian regime allows the government to compromise over the nuclear program. And it could do so again. Because the regime can ultimately live without a nuclear program, but not without its economy.

 

3 Responses to “Iran nuclear deal: a train wreck?”

  1. Omid January 23, 2014 at 11:37 pm #

    That’s it. They just care for their own existence and nothing else matters. but, “It’s only after you’ve lost everything that you’re free to do anything.”

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Iran must be judged by it words, not its actions. Really? - January 27, 2014

    […] Meir Javedanfar points out why Zakaria’s conclusion is premature. […]

  2. Iran and Israel at the upcoming Munich Security Conference | The Iran-Israel Observer - January 31, 2014

    […] next Israel related event will take place immediately after the Iran panel at 1 pm local time on the 2nd of February. It will be an address by Israeli Defence Minister […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: