We all like to try to predict the future. It seems to be a human habit.
Sometimes we get things right, and according to this research presented by the writers of Freakonomics in the podcast below, on majority of occasions we get things wrong.
I think predicting political events could be a very useful exercise, as long as its based on logical sequential thinking. Why? so if you get it wrong, it will be easier to trace your steps back to see where you went off course. And that in itself could be an important learning experience.
You can listen to the podcast here. I highly recommend listening to it, and subscribing to other podcasts from Freakonomics radio.