One of the reasons I have believed why there could be a deal with Iran is because of the worsening drought in that country.
Its scale and possible severe consequences mean that the Iranian government must act now, and to do so, major investment is needed.
To be able to invest the vast sums required, sanctions must be removed and this is why I believe that chances of a deal are still alive. Failure to remove sanctions and the continuation of the drought could mean the loss of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of jobs in Iran’s agriculture industry. Thats only one of many possible consequences.
Of course I could be wrong and Iran’s supreme leader may ultimately decide that reaching a deal with the US could be more dangerous to his regime. Nevertheless, the impact of water on Iranian history, geography, ethnic make up and geopolitical considerations is impossible to ignore. This is why I believe that it could be a factor, one which the leaders of the regime and the government in Tehran could ignore at their own risk.
I discussed these issues in my podcast interview with the Jerusalem Post. It starts at the 8th minute.
You can listen to the interview here