Some early takeaways from results of Friday’s #Iran elections

  1. Vote counting is not final, so lets not jump to any conclusions yet. Yesterday some people were under the impression that the Assembly of Experts election results were final, then the Ministry of Interior said they are not. So lets wait
  2. Because there were so many unknown candidates approved by the Guardian Council, its difficult to know to which camp some of the winning candidates belong.
  3. Just to add more to the confusion, Conservative anti- Rouhani websites and Pro- Rouhani websites are giving different statistic regarding which camp has the majority in the parliamentary elections. Conservative websites such as Tasnim (close to IRGC) says that Conservative have the majority, while Moderate Conservative website Khabar on line (owned by Larijani – closer to Rouhani) says they are almost neck and neck.
  4. Some voting districts did not have a clear winner, so there will be a second round of voting which is to take place late March/early April. Date to be confirmed.
  5. Its unclear to which side some of the “Independent” (Mostaghel) candidates will join: Conservative, Pro-government or Hezb-e Baad (Party of Wind: an expression in Iran to describe those who keep switching sides depending on which direction the political wind is blowing)
  6. So far it seems that in Tehran the Reformists are winning in the parliamentary elections. Tehran has always been more Reformist. In fact majority of Iran would vote Reformist, if so many Reformist candidates were not disqualified. This is one reaason why the regime’s Conservative Guardian Council disqualified so many Reformist candidates – because it knows how popular they are.
  7. Lets remember that Reformist want even more social and political freedom than Rouhani who is considered a moderate.

More to follow soon…