Taliban takeover is likely to lead to a wave of Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran.
Turkey is placing a security barrier on its border with Iran. So it’ll be difficult for the Afghan refugees in Iran to get to the EU. They will have to stay in Iran.
Iran’s economy is in doldrums. Therefore, it will be difficult for the Afghan refugees in Iran to find jobs.
This is especially true as Iran intends to confine new Afghan refugees to provinces on the Iran–Afghan border, where unemployment is high.
With many unemployed Afghan refugees, the IRGC could now find a bigger pool of recruits for its Afghan brigades in Syria. This will be good news for the Assad regime and the Iranian regime and bad news for Israel.