Tag Archives: Assad

I am a Syria Hawk

12 Nov

warned as early as September 2011 that Assad could turn his guns against Israel and that Iran would most probably support such a move. 

The question here is: how should Israel respond?

In my opinion, Israel has to be careful. A full-fledged, messy, bloody war between Israel and Syria could serve the Iranian regime and Assad’s interests.
Such a war would get Israel bogged down in a messy conflict, thus enabling Assad to continue killing his own people while possibly even getting some sympathy from the Arab street.
Such a conflict would also be in the Iranian regime’s interest as it could drain Israel’s economy while possibly affecting its relations with Egypt and Jordan. It could also turn attention and focus away from the regime’s nuclear program, something which Khamenei would welcome.
I don’t want Assad to use my country as a punching bag in order to divert attention away from the brutal massacres which he is carrying out against his own people.

So if the attacks from Syria increase in their ferocity, which they most likely will, I suggest that for every Israeli killed, the Israeli air force kills one of his senior officers. It could be with fighter jets, or drones.

Lets leave the Syrian people alone. Lets not get them involved in the crossfire. If response is needed, let’s go after the butchers of Homs, Hama, Lattakiya and Damascus and their business interests. They are the ones who would be responsible for such attacks against Israel, therefore they are the ones who must pay the price, directly.

Will Iran Attack Turkey To Defend Syria?

5 Oct

Today Turkish forces bombarded positions inside Syrian territory for the second day in a row. 

According to AP:

“Although both sides moved to calm tensions, Turkey’s parliament overwhelmingly approved a bill allowing the military to conduct cross-border operations into Syria — making clear that Ankara has military options that do not involve its Western or Arab allies.”

In the middle of all this melee we should not forget that Iran and Syria have a defense pact which they signed in 2006.

The exact details of this pact are not well-known, but at least in one occasion in January 2012 an Iranian official warned that if Syria comes under attack from the US Iran would “act” as part of its 2006 defense pact with Damascus.

The question which must now be asked is: now that Syria is officially under attack from Turkey, will Iran come to its rescue by either attacking Turkey or alternatively through an increase in its support for Assad?

The answer in both cases is unlikely. Iran is not in a position to attack Turkey because of Syria. Not now, and almost certainly not ever. Perhaps only in the case of a full unjustified Turkish invasion. I emphasize the word perhaps.
There is also no guarantee that Iran would significantly increase its financial and military aid to Assad. If Assad is to receive anything, it’d be limited. Iran is currently going through a severe financial crisis. More than ever, it needs its dollars at home.
With an economic crisis brewing at home, Syria is likely to drop from Khamenei’s list of priorities, and fast.