Tag Archives: bashar al assad

By Retaliating Against Israel, Assad Could Risk His Entire Regime

4 Feb

Assad is under pressure to retaliate against Israel. According to Israel’s Channel 2 Middle East expert Ehud Yaari, for the first time in recent Syrian history, Syrians are coming  on Television and are asking their government to attack Israel on the Golan. According to Yaari this is unprecedented as the Assad family tried to suppress such calls for many years as it did not want to embroil itself in a war against Israel. The fact that such calls are being made publicly now could mean that Assad is preparing his retaliation.

What Assad has to take into consideration is that by attacking Israel, he will risk the stability of his regime.

In the event of a Syrian attack against Israel, should the situation escalate, its possible that the Israeli air force will target his air force. All of his air force, including his helicopters.

Should that happen, it will be much easier for the US and its allies to deploy a no fly zone over Syria to prevent the humanitarian disaster there from worsening, and to weaken Assad.

Losing his aerial superiority will bode very badly for Assad and his forced as this has given them much advantage until now. The loss of his air force could embolden the opposition forces to move against him with more motivation and energy thus speeding up his downfall.

This does not mean that Assad will not retaliate. He is under pressure at home. It also seems that he is being encouraged by Iranian officials. The commander of the IRGC Mohammad Ali Jaafari stated after Israel’s attack that “The Zionist regime (of Israel) can only be dealt with through resistance and retaliation”.

Basher Al Assad has to be very careful about his decision to retaliate against Israel. Perhaps more than ever as he risks losing his air force, and this is something that Iran, and quite possibly not even the Russians could help him replace. Without his air force, the number of Assad’s days in power could be halved, at least.

Iranian Regime’s Silence On Attacks Against Palestinians

17 Dec

In his 26th of November article for Al Monitor, former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators Seyed Hossein Mousavian provides a number of reasons as to why he believes that Iran and Hamas were the winners in the recent eight day Gaza conflict.

One notable reason why he believes that Iran was the winner is as he states:

“Yet, when it came to the latest Israeli aggression in Gaza or for that matter past incursions — Arab leaders have provided only rhetoric with no tangible actions. Ali Larijani voiced Iran’s discontent with Arab nations who are reluctant to help Palestinians beyond words, stating: “The Palestinian nation does not need speeches and meetings. Arab countries should send military aid.”

Mr Mousavian sees it as an Iranian victory that instead of “empty Arab rhetoric”, in the recent Gaza conflict Iran showed action. It did this so providing weapons to Hamas and Islamic Jihad because it cares for the defense of the Palestinian people.

In that case, why has Iran not said a word about the recent attacks against Palestinian refugee camps by the air force of its ally Bashar Al Assad?

Aren’t the Palestinians living in the Yarmulk refugee camp Palestinians too?

The Syrian regime attacks against Palestinian refugee camps have been described by UN Secretary General Moon as war crimes. Based on the Iranian government’s claims that it wants to help Palestinians defend themselves, will the Iranian regime provide weapons to Palestinians in Syria who are under attack from Assad’s forces?

Or are Palestinians victims only when Iran’s adversaries attack them, and not when Iran’s allies do the same?

The Middle East and the Muslim world in particular is watching Iran’s actions in Syria very closely.

Evidence of Brutality By The Syrian Opposition?

17 Sep
Borzou Daragahi’s latest report for the FT about the Syrian opposition makes compelling reading. 
Daragahi writes:
“Under the shadow of Mr Assad’s fighter jets, shelling and helicopters, the self-described revolutionaries manage local affairs such as refuse collection or food distribution, house the many displaced by war, mete out justice and resolve potentially cataclysmic disputes between clans before they get out of hand.”
A peaceful, democratic and stable Syria would be in the interest of the overwhelming majority in the Middle East. For now, there are only a few governments and organizations like Hezbollah and the Iranian government who want Bashar Al Assad to stay.
That is not to say that the Iranian government’s support is eternal and guaranteed.
This came to light yesterday.
According to Al Monitor’s excellent Iran Pulse publication:
“When (IRGC commander) Jafari was asked whether Iran would support Syria militarily in the event of a military attack, given the security agreement between the two countries he replied: “this issue depends of the circumstances. I can now say with assurance in the event of a military attack against Syria, whether Iran will also support militarily is unclear, and it completely depends on the circumstances.”
The fall of Assad however does not necessarily mean that freedom and democracy are around the corner.
There is always the possibility that the rebels could go on to massacre the Alawites, the sect which the Assad family belongs to.
There is also the possibility that thousands could be summarily executed because they were suspected of working with the government, without any proper trial or credible evidence being used.
In fact this could be happening as we speak.
This shocking video (warning, disturbing scene) whose contents have not yet been verified could be a sign of things to come, if found to be genuine.
It apparently shows someone who is believed to be working with the Shabiha (pro-government militia) being thrown out of a window by members of the opposition.
The Assad regime must go and many in the Syrian opposition, in fact the majority most probably want a democratic government to replace him.
However we in the West must be careful about the Jihadi opposition forces who the Saudis could be supporting. In the long run, this could impact us all.
As the old saying goes qui cum canibus concumbunt cum pulicibus surgent, “he that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas”.
This has happened before, it could happen again.