Tag Archives: hezbollah

Iran to send more troops to Syria?

25 Jul

Today I read an interesting analysis by Shimon Shapira, which was published at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

According to the findings of its report, entitled “Iran’s Plans to Take Over Syria“:

In mid-April, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah paid a secret visit to Tehran where he met with the top Iranian officials headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Gen. Qasem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Suleimani prepared an operational plan named after him based upon the establishment of a 150,000-man force for Syria, the majority of whom will come from Iran, Iraq, and a smaller number from Hizbullah and the Gulf states.

I think this is not all bad news for Israel.

Just imagine the scenario: a Chemical weapon goes missing in Syria. Between Al Qaeda and Hezbollah forces in Syria, who would Israel prefer to take the weapon? Although not a good choice (in this region we usually don’t have the luxury of having good choices), Hezbollah is far more balanced and deter-able than Al Qaeda.

Now of course there are those in Israel who don’t like Hezbollah and Iran – with good reason.

Nevertheless, in the short term, what is going on in Syria is good for Israel. How can it not be? Al Qaeda and Hezbollah are killing each other.

But in the medium to long term, instability in Syria will be bad for Israel. Which is why Israel needs to reach a deal with the PLO in order to prepare itself diplomatically for what is to come in Syria.

Israel must learn that its not enough to be prepared militarily for a future conflict. It also needs to be diplomatically prepared too.

Iran, Israel Need to Talk About Syria

7 May

On why the governments of Iran and Israel must consider the option of talking to each other, be it overtly or covertly.

On Syria: Obama’s Green Light to Israel?

5 May

Dear Prime Minister Netanyahu (Bibi):

“I am not interested in getting involved in Syria. Its far too costly diplomatically, economically and militarily. I know that concerns you because I had said that use of Chemical weapons in Syria is my red line. But attacking Assad is just far too much for me to take on right now, despite his reported use of Chemical weapons…

So lets do a deal…

In return for me not getting stuck in the mud of Syria, you have my full diplomatic and military backing to take on Hezbollah in Syria. Go for it…

Meanwhile I will cover you by saying things like:

“I continue to believe is that the Israelis justifiably have to guard against the transfer of advanced weaponry to terrorist organizations like Hezbollah”.

And I will also get the Turks who would otherwise be screaming blue murder to continue as if nothing is wrong. They will arrive in Israel to discuss compensation for the Mavi Marmara, as if there was no attack against another Muslim country on their very border. You see, I told you it was worth apologizing to Erdogan…

In fact you know what? why don’t you go on that trip to China. Go and pretend its Christmas day in NYC and have some nice Chinese food. Israel’s air force will take care of the military side of things and I will make sure that the UN and the Arab world don’t raise too much of a hue and cry. In fact I just had King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on the phone today. Haven’t heard him so happy and excited for a long time. He said, Assad, Nasrallah and Khamenei all getting hit with one stone, this is great.”

So we have a deal?

Regards, Barack Obama

President of the United States of America

Sound like fantasy?

By the way things are going, it doesn’t sound too far from reality to me.

Impact of Assassination Of Iran Official in Syria

15 Feb

A senior Iranian IRGC official was recently assassinated in Syria

Who was he?

What impact will his death have on Iran’s policies with regards to Syria?

My latest article tries to explain these important questions and more.